International actors

There has been confusion this week over whether American airstrikes against ISIS positions in Sirte have ended or have just been paused temporarily, while the outcomes of the economic meeting in London are still unclear.

Western powers hosted a controversial meeting in London on 31 October between Libyan officials to discuss Libya’s deteriorating economic situation, during which they reiterated their support for the GNA and Libyan Political Agreement.

Last week, UN and European diplomats visited PM Fayez Serraj and head of the High Council of State, Abdulrahman Swehli, to discuss the recent ‘coup’ attempt in Tripoli and to reaffirm their support for the Libyan Political Agreement and the GNA. The US have ramped up their airstrikes in Sirte and are in the process of switching the aircrafts involved in this campaign.

The main Western reaction to events in Libya last week was in response to the attempted ‘coup’ in Tripoli. A number of international statements were issued condemning the incident and reiterating support to the GNA.

The recent takeover of the oil ports by Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar and the Libyan National Army (LNA), who are aligned with the Tobruq-based House of Representatives (HoR), has significantly shifted the balance of political and military power away from PM Fayez Serraj and his Presidential Council, and towards Haftar. As a result, there is growing international pressure to find a way to bring Haftar within the Libyan Political Agreement, in order to reflect the realities on the ground.

The international community continues diplomatic efforts to help support a political solution for Libya that includes the GNA and Haftar.

A wide range of international and regional actors last week reiterated their support for the Libyan Political Agreement, called for de-escalation of the situation and welcomed the resumption of oil exports. U.S. AFRICOM also reported that the US has carried out 169 airstrikes to date in Sirte.

General Khalifa Haftar’s seizure of ports in the oil crescent on 11 September and the reopening of oil exports have dominated the international response to events in Libya over the last week. The Western response has shifted towards supporting Haftar’s control of the ports, so long as oil is being exported under the National Oil Corporation (NOC).

The international community has condemned the LNA takeover of the oil crescent ports and has called for a cessation of hostilities, as well as unity in fighting ISIS.

President Obama has extended the US military campaign in Sirte for an additional 30 days, while European nations continue to extend support for the Libyan Political Agreement.

On 24 August, the Presidential Council (PC) issued statement accepting the House of Representatives (HoR) vote of no-confidence in the current Government of National Accord (GNA), adding that it will draw up a new list of GNA ministers for its approval, while current ministers will continue in office in a caretaker role until the new government is voted on… UN Special Envoy Martin Kobler, US Special Envoy Jonathan Winer and British Ambassador Peter Millett all backed the PC’s position , showing that they are not willing to alter the LPA process because of HoR intransigence… On 25 August, a joint statement was issued by the France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States backing the PC and reiterating their recognition of the GNA as the sole legitimate government of Libya.

As of 22 August, US Africa Command press statements say that the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit has conducted 77 airstrikes in Sirte under Operation Odyssey Lightning. Meanwhile, the no-confidence vote for the Government of National Accord (GNA) dealt by the Libyan House of Representatives on 22 August creates significant issues for the international community’s attempts to provide support to the GNA. Further, it is not clear what affect this development will have on the West’s assistance package for the campaign against ISIS in Libya , which began on 1 August and was initiated at the request of the GNA.

The Washington Post reported that US Special Operations forces are providing direct, on-the-ground support for Bunyan Marsus fighters battling the ISIS in Sirte. The US troops were tasked with coordinating American airstrikes and providing intelligence as the coalition ousted ISIS from its stronghold in the city center. A total of 48 US airstrikes have taken place steadily since 1 August, targeting ISIS positions throughout Sirte… Italy appointed a new ambassador to Libya, while members from the Italian Senate called for a European summit on Libya to address the shortfalls of the Libyan Political Agreement and the significant gaps in US, UK and EU policy towards Libya’s various factions.

The US airstrikes are further polarizing opinion on the ground in Libya and are making strange bedfellows between the Islamists and Haftar who both oppose the airstrikes. It is also being reported that Italy is now offering support to the US operations… Ahmed Mismari, LNA spokesman claimed that the air raid was carried out for US electoral purposes to help Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, insisting that Sirte would be only liberated by the LNA.

On 1 August, Government of National Accord (GNA) Prime Minister Fayez Serraj made a televised speech announcing the beginning of US airstrikes upon a formal request by the Presidential Council, and Libya’s joining of the international anti-ISIS coalition. Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook confirmed that US warplanes launched a new round of airstrikes against ISIS in Sirte at the request of the GNA. The direct involvement of the US on behalf of the GNA may have a direct impact on current political dynamics on the ground, and will likely raise tensions between GNA supporters and anti-GNA hardliners and Islamists in Tripoli.

On 21 July, French President Francois Hollande confirmed three French special forces soldiers had died in the downing of a Libyan National Army (LNA) helicopter on 17 July. The event, and subsequent revelation, unleashed large demonstrations on 22 July in a number of western Libyan cities against France and the Government of National Accord, reinvigorating hardline Islamists and revolutionary factions as a force of opposition to both the GNA and House of Representatives.

US Marine Corps Gen. Joe Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on 18 July he is encouraged by developments against ISIS in Libya… UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned that ISIS fighters could set up new cells across Libya and North Africa as they are driven from Sirte.

On 8 July, a widely publicized leak shed light on active Western military support for Khalifa Haftar and the LNA. The leak has caused disarray in the GNA camp, especially within the ranks of Islamists. This new information is seen as evidence of a Western betrayal of the terms of the Libyan Political Agreement that produced the GNA… Speaking at a House of Lords Committee hearing on 7 July, Britain’s Ambassador to Libya Peter Millett said that he that he had visited Tripoli five times since the arrival of the GNA.

Western countries continue to project support for the Government of National Accord (GNA), with a number of representatives travelling to Tripoli throughout last week to discuss immediate assistance… Haftar travelled to Moscow on 27 June, followed immediately by GNA deputy prime minister Ahmed Metig on 29 June to solicit Russian support… UN Special Representative Martin Kobler met with HoR Chairman Ageelah Saleh, and a delegation of HoR members and eastern tribal leaders, in Muscat on 28 June to explore the potential for political resolution.

The weakness of the Government of National Accord (GNA) was more fully realised in international diplomatic circles last week, when GNA Foreign Minister Taher Siala failed to make a positive impact on the European stage… During a Senate Foreign Relations Committee confirmation hearing on 22 June, President Barack Obama’s nominee to command US forces in Africa, Marine Lt. General Thomas Waldhauser, said that more ground troops were needed in Libya to fight ISIS and agreed the current strategy of not bombing the group there “makes no sense.”

Following UN Security Council approval on 14 June to inspect vessels off the coast of Libya, EU foreign ministers agreed at talks in Luxembourg on 20 June to extend Operation Sophia to July 2017, and tasked it with supporting Libya’s coast guard and navy. At a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on 15 June, special envoy for Libya Jonathan Winer told the committee that the Obama administration seeks to support the Government of National Accord (GNA) with a $56 million aid package.

Despite the steady advance on Sirte by the Bunyan Marsus coalition, there were no significant actions taken by the Western international community last week. Most notably, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution to extend the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) mandate to December 15, 2016, and encouraged UNSMIL to re-establish a permanent presence in the country.

The European Union (EU) is pushing for increased authority to enforce the existing embargo on arms shipments Libya. Speaking to the UN Security Council on 6 June, EU Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini urged members to authorize EU naval operations in the Mediterranean Sea “to enforce the UN arms embargo on the high seas, off the coast of Libya.”

International support has also been key to this week’s explosion of momentum on the western front against ISIS… The spokesperson of the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) Sirte Operations Room said they have started to receive financial and logistical support from the GNA and other countries.

Last week, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford said that the Government of National Accord (GNA) is in a “period of intense dialogue” that could soon lead to an agreement in which US military advisers will be deployed to Libya, in addition to Special Forces already in the country. Following a request by GNA Prime Minister Fayez Serraj on 23 May, the European Union agreed to step up its naval operations off the coast of Libya.

This week, Western powers opted to loosen their policies toward Libya in order to support the Government of National Accord (GNA) and combat the expansion of ISIS.  At a meeting in Vienna on 16 May, the US and its European and regional partners agreed to supply the GNA with weapons, aimed at preventing ISIS fighters […]

This week, British and Italian leaders contemplated the possibility of providing military support to the Government of National Accord (GNA), but have maintained that the conditions for an international intervention are not yet favourable. Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni said that talks on providing assistance to the GNA would take place in Vienna (not Rome) on […]

During a Senate Armed Forces Committee hearing on 28 April, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Joseph Dunford said the US has moved surveillance drones into Libyan airspace to gather intelligence and to prepare for the potential of additional airstrikes against ISIS.  At a press conference on 3 May, Dunford also said that US AFRICOM […]

UN Special Envoy Martin Kobler called for western forces to help combat ISIS in partnership with the Government of National Accord (GNA). Kobler said foreign powers should offer training and military support, combined with an end to the UN arms embargo. “The Daesh expansion can only be stopped militarily,” he said. “There is a consensus […]

British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond visited Tripoli on 18 April to meet with the Government of National Accord (GNA), pledging £10 million in support to help train Libyan state institutions. Hammond has also suggested that the UK would be ready to contribute to an international coalition to train the Libyan National Army. Speaking at the […]

Western countries’ statements and gestures of support for the Government of National Accord (GNA) Presidential Council continued to pour in throughout the week. Germany has pledged to provide the Presidency Council with €3 million in immediate aid to spend on “much-needed security infrastructure,” with a further €10 million ear marked for a stabilization fund to […]

On 1 April, the European Union imposed sanctions on three prominent Libyan politicians opposed to the installation of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). The three targets were Agilah Saleh, president of the House of Representatives (HoR), Khalifa Ghwell, prime minister of the General National Congress (GNC), and Nouri Abusahmen, president of the GNC.   […]

The Guardian reports that British Special Air Service (SAS) forces have been deployed in Libya since the beginning of the year. This information comes from a leaked memo detailing a confidential briefing given to US congressional leaders in January 2016 by Jordan’s King Abdullah. The memo indicates that US lawmakers were personally briefed about plans […]

The UK parliament’s foreign affairs select committee asked the government whether it intends to send 1,000 non-combat troops to Libya to train an army capable of driving ISIS from the country. Senior members of the committee said they were told in Tunis that the Italians would provide 5,000 troops and the UK 1,000, with more […]

In an Atlantic article from the April 2016 issue, US President Barack Obama hinted that America’s European and British partners have gravely disappointed in their support for Libya. Meanwhile last week’s comments by Italian Prime Minister Renzi against French ‘haste’ in 2011 have generated their fair share of scorn. The US, UK and EU called […]

A recent article by the Washington Post said that the Pentagon had presented the White House with the most detailed set of military options yet for attacking the growing ISIS threat in Libya. The plans are said to include a range of potential airstrikes against training camps, command centres, munitions depots and other militant targets. […]

As the political process for Libya mediated by the UN begins to flounder, signals are emerging that the international community is more seriously considering the ‘military option’. International media reports have begun to reveal the different roles played by western countries such as France, the US and the UK in supporting various power brokers in […]

Despite the inconsistency of the Western community’s position vis-à-vis ISIS in Libya, as well as the faltering Libyan political process, an international bombing campaign of ISIS forces in the country seems a very probable prospect in the near future…Although US Secretary of State John Kerry, downplayed the US role or the intentions of President Barack Obama to intervene militarily in Libya, the chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee said that Obama is “on the verge of taking action” against ISIS in Libya.

Days before the Italian president’s visit to the White House on 9 February, US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter reportedly told media that the Italians have indicated that they want the lead in Libya, an impulse the US is willing to support. … Meanwhile Russian media is reporting that Russian Ambassador to Libya Ivan Moltokov has unveiled his country’s intention to fight terrorism, also saying that Russia has approached the UN Security Council with a request to lift arms sanctions against Libya to enable its fight against ISIS.

International media widely speculated last week about the potential for Western intervention against ISIS in Libya, fuelling controversy and tension inside the country, and even provoking citizens to begin stockpiling essential goods in Benghazi and other areas in Eastern Libya. The value of the Libyan Dinar (LYD) also plummeted, reaching a record low on the […]

The international community continues to push ahead with plans to intervene decisively in Libya, including statements to that effect by the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff last week. Despite the obvious urgency for such international assistance to counter ISIS in Libya, the political disconnect between the UN and international missions with the […]

News reports confirmed that unidentified airstrikes targeted the port and other locations inside Sirte on 14 Janaury. It is highly likely that these strikes are conducted by international forces (France, US) but local reports (and ISIS) suggested that Libyan aircraft from Misrata were responsible. Germany’s defense minister says she does not rule out dispatching military […]

A high-level meeting was held on 12 January, which included the  Italian PM, defense, Intelligence and security ministers, including Italian special forces where Libya was the key agenda item. The meeting may be related to the flash incident in Mellitah complex on 12 January, where gunfire at the complex entrance forced a quick evacuation of […]

Although ISIS do not control any oil ports yet, new reports suggest that British SAS Special Forces could be preparing to lead an international team to take back control of any oil fields which would fall under ISIS control. At present this seems infeasible, as the international community first needs the Government of National Accord […]

Ibrahim Dabbashi, Libyan ambassador to the UN, told La Stampa newspaper: “Italy, France, Britain and the United States are preparing air strikes to hit the bases of ISIS in Sirte. I believe that as soon as the political conditions allow, they will take action.”

On Sunday night 20 Dec, there were new reports of ‘unidentified’ low-flying, surveillance aircraft over ISIS territory east of Sirte, near Noufaliyah, Um Qandil and Bin Jawwad, a town just 40km from Sidra and Ras Lanuf, the largest oil terminals in Libya. Sources speculate that the aircraft are likely French jets flying from the French Carrier Charles De Gaulle…. In fact, prominent Islamists and political hardliners in Tripoli are saying that the purpose of the GNA is to rubber stamp international intervention against all Islamist forces, a potently dangerous rhetoric as it risks emboldening extremist groups and IS even further. In a recent statement by Dar Al Ifta, the religious establishment headed by the Grand Mufti in Tripoli, Sadeq Al Gheryani, the GNA is deemed against Sharia due to its illegitimate and unconstitutional origins.

After months of measured statements by foreign ministers and top officials dismissing the notion of direct military intervention in Libya, recent reports indicate that the UK and possibly France could extend ‘Syria-style’ anti-ISIS strikes to Libya, subject to the establishment of a GNA which invites them to do so.

This week, both the Italian and French PMs explicitly dismissed the notion of boots-on-the-ground military intervention against ISIS in Libya. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also ruled out such an intervention…. France confirmed that it carried out ISR flights over Sirte on 20 and 21 November, aimed at collecting intelligence on ISIS movements.

There was no discernable Western response to the ISIS threat in Libya this week.

The US announced its first airstrike against an IS target in Derna, claiming to have killed the top IS leader in Libya. an entire LNA unit was killed by a suicide bomber.

There was no discernable Western response to the ISIS threat in Libya this week.

Sources in Sirte have reported airdrops of supplies and ammunition by other unidentified aircraft in the night.

There was no discernable Western response to jihadi threats in Libya this week.

There was no discernable Western response to jihadi threats in Libya this week.

There was no discernable Western response to jihadi threats in Libya this week.

There was no discernable Western response to jihadi threats in Libya this week.

There was no discernable Western response to jihadi threats in Libya this week.

There was no discernable Western response to jihadi threats in Libya this week.

There was no discernible Western response to jihadi threats in Libya this week.

There was no discernable Western response to jihadi threats in Libya this week.

There was no discernable Western response to jihadi threats in Libya this week.

There was no overt western response to jihadi threats in Libya this week.

US forces launched airstrikes against a militant base south of Ajdabiyya meant to target Mokhtar Belmokhtar.

There was no overt Western response to jihadi activity in Libya this week.

There has been no further progress in the UN sponsored peace negotiations. UNSMIL is still in the process of reworking the draft roadmap document that was issued at the end of April and rejected so forcefully by the GNC. The amended roadmap is expected to be ready by the start of the second week of […]

There was no overt Western response to jihadi activity in Libya this week.

There was no overt Western response to jihadi activity in Libya this week.

There was no overt Western response to jihadi activity in Libya this week.

There was no overt Western response to jihadi activity in Libya this week.

There was no overt Western response to jihadi activity in Libya this week.

There was no overt Western response to jihadi activity in Libya this week.

There was no overt Western response to jihadi activity in Libya this week.

The UN Security Council unanimously voted on 28 March to extend its arms embargo on Libya although it allowed space for restrictions to be lifted on a case by case basis by calling on the Sanctions Committee to consider requests for the transfer of arms and related material to the Libyan Government for use by the official armed forces in its fight against IS and its supporters.

There was no overt Western response to jihadi activity this week.

There was no overt Western response to jihadi activity this week.

British Ambassador to the UN, Sir Mark Lyall Grant stated during an interview with the Al-Arabiya television channel that Libya would only be supplied with weapons to fight IS if it agreed to a national unity government first.

There was no overt Western response to jihadi activity this week.

Italian Defence Minister, Roberta Pinotto, stated in an interview published on 15 February that the situation in Libya was urgent after the beheadings and that Rome was ready to fight against Islamist militants in the context of an international mission including European and North African powers.

There was no overt Western response to jihadi activity in Libya this week.

On Wednesday 14 January, multilateral direct UN-backed negotiations started in Geneva, despite the last minute boycott of the Martyr’s bloc which was misrepresented in the media as a boycott of the whole rump GNC.

Italy’s PM Matteo Renzi opened the door to a UN-sanctioned peacekeeping mission in Libya should negotiations fail. It is unclear what impact, if any, will this week’s terrorist attack in Paris have over France’s already pro-active policy in Libya.

There was no overt Western response to jihadi activity in Libya this week.

Although UNSMIL’s Chief Bernardino Leon and Libya’s Western partners continue to staunchly promote the undertaking of negotiations to follow up on the Ghadames process, hardly any positive developments have emerged from the country during the past week.

Unsurprisingly given the ongoing violence, including in the oil crescent, the UN-sponsored peace talks that were planned for 16 December did not go ahead.

The future of the UN-sponsored peace talks known as the Ghadames II dialogue is still uncertain. The talks had been due to go ahead on 9 December but were postponed at the last moment and rescheduled for 16 December.

UN Special Representative to Libya, Bernardino Leon has continued his efforts this week to try to bring Libya’s warring parties together and to convince them to participate in the next round of UN-sponsored peace talks.

UN Special Representative to Libya, Bernardino Leon, has continued in his efforts to try to bring Libya’s rival factions together in what he hopes will be a Ghadames Meeting Mark Two.

No Western Response this week.

Libya’s political scene remains deeply divided with last week’s Supreme Court ruling leaving both sides more entrenched than ever.

As ISIS has firmly established itself in Derna and announced that presences to the world, the West made no response and HoR PM Thinni, resolutely refused to deal with those he dismisses as “terrorists”.

The Algerian initiative appears to be dead on the vine as there doesn’t seem to be any official pronouncements about it.

The US along with the UK, France, Italy and Germany issued a joint statement this week condemning the violence in Libya and calling on all parties to agree on a ceasefire.

Algeria’s bid to host a Libyan national reconciliation initiative is gathering momentum. Algeria has been trying for some time to sponsor peace talks between Libya’s warring parties, viewing this as a preferable option to some kind of military intervention.

The UNSMIL sponsored peace talks went ahead in Ghadames on 29 September and surprisingly heralded an agreement of sorts. Operation Libya Dawn made clear its objections to the talks right from the start calling on those boycotters of the House to suspend their participation in the dialogue.

The United Nations is sponsoring peace talks in Ghadames this week.

News this week that Haftar has received 8 military jets that were sent abroad for reconditioning suggests that he has no intention of giving up the fight.

The international community looks highly unlikely to respond to French calls for mobilisation as Syria overshadows Libya.

The Libyan government accused Sudan this week of providing military support to Operation Libya Dawn forces in the capital.

No Western Response to jihadist in Libya was logged this week.

Libya’s neighbours held another ministerial level meeting on 25 August in Cairo in a bid to come up with a plan to resolve the crisis in Libya. The meeting was attended by the foreign ministers of Libya, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Sudan and Chad, and others.