International actors

A meeting held in Malta to discuss the political impasse in the LPA fizzled out without any significant results. The anti-GNA factions are waiting for the LPA to expire in December, hopeful that following Trump’s victory, a potential new international political order will favour their political ambitions.

There has been confusion this week over whether American airstrikes against ISIS positions in Sirte have ended or have just been paused temporarily, while the outcomes of the economic meeting in London are still unclear.

Western powers hosted a controversial meeting in London on 31 October between Libyan officials to discuss Libya’s deteriorating economic situation, during which they reiterated their support for the GNA and Libyan Political Agreement.

Last week, UN and European diplomats visited PM Fayez Serraj and head of the High Council of State, Abdulrahman Swehli, to discuss the recent ‘coup’ attempt in Tripoli and to reaffirm their support for the Libyan Political Agreement and the GNA. The US have ramped up their airstrikes in Sirte and are in the process of switching the aircrafts involved in this campaign.

The main Western reaction to events in Libya last week was in response to the attempted ‘coup’ in Tripoli. A number of international statements were issued condemning the incident and reiterating support to the GNA.

The recent takeover of the oil ports by Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar and the Libyan National Army (LNA), who are aligned with the Tobruq-based House of Representatives (HoR), has significantly shifted the balance of political and military power away from PM Fayez Serraj and his Presidential Council, and towards Haftar. As a result, there is growing international pressure to find a way to bring Haftar within the Libyan Political Agreement, in order to reflect the realities on the ground.

The international community continues diplomatic efforts to help support a political solution for Libya that includes the GNA and Haftar.

A wide range of international and regional actors last week reiterated their support for the Libyan Political Agreement, called for de-escalation of the situation and welcomed the resumption of oil exports. U.S. AFRICOM also reported that the US has carried out 169 airstrikes to date in Sirte.

General Khalifa Haftar’s seizure of ports in the oil crescent on 11 September and the reopening of oil exports have dominated the international response to events in Libya over the last week. The Western response has shifted towards supporting Haftar’s control of the ports, so long as oil is being exported under the National Oil Corporation (NOC).