International actors

International media widely speculated last week about the potential for Western intervention against ISIS in Libya, fuelling controversy and tension inside the country, and even provoking citizens to begin stockpiling essential goods in Benghazi and other areas in Eastern Libya. The value of the Libyan Dinar (LYD) also plummeted, reaching a record low on the […]

The international community continues to push ahead with plans to intervene decisively in Libya, including statements to that effect by the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff last week. Despite the obvious urgency for such international assistance to counter ISIS in Libya, the political disconnect between the UN and international missions with the […]

News reports confirmed that unidentified airstrikes targeted the port and other locations inside Sirte on 14 Janaury. It is highly likely that these strikes are conducted by international forces (France, US) but local reports (and ISIS) suggested that Libyan aircraft from Misrata were responsible. Germany’s defense minister says she does not rule out dispatching military […]

A high-level meeting was held on 12 January, which included the  Italian PM, defense, Intelligence and security ministers, including Italian special forces where Libya was the key agenda item. The meeting may be related to the flash incident in Mellitah complex on 12 January, where gunfire at the complex entrance forced a quick evacuation of […]

Although ISIS do not control any oil ports yet, new reports suggest that British SAS Special Forces could be preparing to lead an international team to take back control of any oil fields which would fall under ISIS control. At present this seems infeasible, as the international community first needs the Government of National Accord […]

Ibrahim Dabbashi, Libyan ambassador to the UN, told La Stampa newspaper: “Italy, France, Britain and the United States are preparing air strikes to hit the bases of ISIS in Sirte. I believe that as soon as the political conditions allow, they will take action.”

On Sunday night 20 Dec, there were new reports of ‘unidentified’ low-flying, surveillance aircraft over ISIS territory east of Sirte, near Noufaliyah, Um Qandil and Bin Jawwad, a town just 40km from Sidra and Ras Lanuf, the largest oil terminals in Libya. Sources speculate that the aircraft are likely French jets flying from the French Carrier Charles De Gaulle…. In fact, prominent Islamists and political hardliners in Tripoli are saying that the purpose of the GNA is to rubber stamp international intervention against all Islamist forces, a potently dangerous rhetoric as it risks emboldening extremist groups and IS even further. In a recent statement by Dar Al Ifta, the religious establishment headed by the Grand Mufti in Tripoli, Sadeq Al Gheryani, the GNA is deemed against Sharia due to its illegitimate and unconstitutional origins.

After months of measured statements by foreign ministers and top officials dismissing the notion of direct military intervention in Libya, recent reports indicate that the UK and possibly France could extend ‘Syria-style’ anti-ISIS strikes to Libya, subject to the establishment of a GNA which invites them to do so.

This week, both the Italian and French PMs explicitly dismissed the notion of boots-on-the-ground military intervention against ISIS in Libya. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also ruled out such an intervention…. France confirmed that it carried out ISR flights over Sirte on 20 and 21 November, aimed at collecting intelligence on ISIS movements.