Libyan actors
Tracking developments of Libyan Actors in Libya’s security space including armed group activity, state security operations and political activities pertaining to Libya’s security.
Anti 5 Sept 16
The political process in Libya is headed towards a new stage of dysfunction. The Presidential Council (PC) has not yet agreed a new ministerial list for the Government of National Accord (GNA), and fresh divisions are emerging within the House of Representatives (HoR).
Action — 29 August 2016
In Sirte, fighting halted last week but resumed fiercely on 27 August. The break in the fighting was reportedly to allow wives and children of ISIS fighters to exit the conflict zone towards the southwest, though there is no evidence confirming this actually took place. It is likely that key ISIS commanders will have taken advantage of this lull in fighting to escape to the south, meaning the destruction of ISIS in Sirte will not mean the eradication of ISIS in Libya… On 28 August, Bunyan Marsus (BM) fighters aligned with the Government of National Accord (GNA) closed in on ISIS-held districts 1 and 3 of Sirte. At least 35 were killed and more than 180 injured as a result of fierce fighting and reportedly 14 attempted SVBIED attacks by ISIS.
Anti — 29 August 2016
At the moment of partial victory in Sirte, various pillars that should make up the anti-ISIS coalition are feuding with each other. The House of Representatives (HoR) has rejected the Government of National Accord, while the Libyan National Army (LNA) and Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) are facing increasing tension over Zuetina in the oil crescent, and various interests are preventing oil production in order to seek their own demands.
Other — 29 August 2016
In Benghazi, conflict continues between the Libya National Army (LNA) and the coalition of ISIS and Benghazi Revolutionary Shura Council. Fighting intensified in parts of Guwarsha and Ganfuda throughout last week, as jihadists still manage to launch suicide attacks and mortar fire on advancing LNA units… On 28 August, jihadist media outlets released a video showing the recovery of bodies of children killed on 27 August in Ganfuda allegedly by French airstrikes. Families and supporters of jihadists held demonstrations in Tripoli on 29 August in front of the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Abu Setta Naval Base in Tripoli condemning the attacks and calling for humanitarian assistance of the families trapped in the war-zone.
Western — 29 August 2016
On 24 August, the Presidential Council (PC) issued statement accepting the House of Representatives (HoR) vote of no-confidence in the current Government of National Accord (GNA), adding that it will draw up a new list of GNA ministers for its approval, while current ministers will continue in office in a caretaker role until the new government is voted on… UN Special Envoy Martin Kobler, US Special Envoy Jonathan Winer and British Ambassador Peter Millett all backed the PC’s position , showing that they are not willing to alter the LPA process because of HoR intransigence… On 25 August, a joint statement was issued by the France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States backing the PC and reiterating their recognition of the GNA as the sole legitimate government of Libya.
Who Pays for ISIS in Libya?
Who Pays for ISIS in Libya?
In the report “Who pays for ISIS in Libya?”, James Roslington and Jason Pack look at the Libyan group’s sources of seed capital and how its financial model differs in key ways from that of the parent organization in Iraq and Syria. We conclude that ISIS’s financing mechanism in Libya appears to have failed long before the local group suffered its military reversals over the past few months. The Libya case study also reveals the importance of financing to ISIS’s and other jihadi organisations’ sustainability and organizational models throughout the world.
Action — 22 August 2016
The Bunyan Marsus coalition continued its steady advance deep into the center of Sirte, taking major residential areas throughout the week with the help of US airstrikes. ISIS militants still fighting in these areas continue to show fierce resistance using snipers, mortars and SVBIEDs, but the gains made by Bunyan Marsus indicate that the entirety of Sirte may be liberated within the next two weeks.
Anti — 22 August 2016
On 22 August, the HoR managed to hold its first session since February 2016 with the required legal quorum. Of the 101 members in attendance, 61 voted no-confidence on the current GNA cabinet, but gave the Presidential Council a final opportunity to submit an amended cabinet for a possible future endorsement vote. This latest development is quite a blow to the internationally recognized GNA, as certain ministers have already assumed their mandates, but may have to now be replaced… In Western Libya, the conflict map is becoming slightly more complicated. The main tension inside the capital is between pro-GNA militias and anti-GNA Islamist/Misratan affiliated factions, signaling a very likely conflict between these militias after the victory in Sirte is secured.
Other — 22 August 2016
Conflict continues in eastern Libya between the Libyan National Army (LNA) and the coalition of jihadists in Benghazi. Reports indicate that General Khalifta Haftar has arrived in Benghazi to personally oversee the final assault in western Benghazi…. In Derna, the LNA operation room responsible for conducting operations against the Derna Mujahedeen Shura Council (DMSC) was reorganized by Haftar this week, indicating a likely uptick in military confrontation in the coming weeks. The move follows two successful attacks conducted by the DMSC on LNA units near Derna last month, in which 12 LNA soldiers were killed.