Libyan actors
Tracking developments of Libyan Actors in Libya’s security space including armed group activity, state security operations and political activities pertaining to Libya’s security.
Anti — 20 June 2016
The political damage to the Government of National Accord (GNA), following the attack on Ajdabiya on 18 June by Islamist militias, may undo fragile militia alliances in Tripoli and key towns in western Libya. Meanwhile, an escalation of open conflict between the Libyan National Army (LNA) and Islamist militias from western Libya is now very likely, and could potentially spill over into a broader tribal/regional conflict involving the LNA and the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG).
Other — 20 June 2016
Two key types of non-state actors may now be identified vis-a-vis theLibyan National Army (LNA): The first group is comprised of Islamist actors in the cities of Benghazi, Derna and Ajdabiya, (including ISIS, Ansar Al Sharia, Derna Mujahedeen Shura Council, Benghazi Revolutionary Shura Council, Benghazi Defense Brigade and the Ajdabiya Liberation Operation Room. The second group consists of militias that were once aligned with Khalifa Haftar, who have opted to support the Government of National Accord instead. Conflict is likely to continue unabated in Benghazi between the LNA and these groups, and may escalate further in Derna and Ajdabiya in the short term.
Western — 20 June 2016
Following UN Security Council approval on 14 June to inspect vessels off the coast of Libya, EU foreign ministers agreed at talks in Luxembourg on 20 June to extend Operation Sophia to July 2017, and tasked it with supporting Libya’s coast guard and navy. At a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on 15 June, special envoy for Libya Jonathan Winer told the committee that the Obama administration seeks to support the Government of National Accord (GNA) with a $56 million aid package.
Action — 13 June 2016
GNA-aligned forces from Misrata managed to take full control of Sirte port’s and eastern coastline in Sawawa on 10 June. Libyan navy vessels blockaded the port as GNA forces advanced from the southeast, aided by airstrikes throughout last week. ISIS is currently hemmed into 20 square kilometers at Sirte’s center. Further, ISIS has lost control of all its coastal territory and the port will likely be used as a key transport route for GNA forces until ISIS is eliminated.
Anti — 13 June 2016
As militias nominally aligned with the Government of National Accord (GNA) made highly impressive gains against ISIS in Sirte last week, and a degree of euphoria has gripped international actors and some GNA supporters, these gains have not automatically led to authentic political unity among Libya’s major anti-ISIS factions. To the contrary, prospects for unity and strengthened political legitimacy for the GNA are lower, and the likelihood of renewed civil conflict higher, due to three factors identified this week.
Other — 13 June 2016
Over the last week, there has been increasing conflict between jihadi actors and the Libyan National Army (LNA) in eastern Libya. The LNA offensive in Benghazi continues to face fierce resistance from ISIS militants, Ansar Al Sharia (AAS) fighters and the Benghazi Revolutionary Shura Council (BRSC) fighters in Sabri and Souq Al-Hout. Meanwhile, LNA airstrikes on Derna Mujahedeen Shura Council (DMSC) targets have inspired local hostility.
Western — 13 June 2016
Despite the steady advance on Sirte by the Bunyan Marsus coalition, there were no significant actions taken by the Western international community last week. Most notably, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution to extend the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) mandate to December 15, 2016, and encouraged UNSMIL to re-establish a permanent presence in the country.
Action — 6 June 2016
The Government of National Accord’s Misratan-led Bunyan Marsus operation room continued to make significant strides against ISIS this week, advancing to within two kilometres southwest of Sirte, and forcing ISIS to retreat towards the city. However, this does not mean that a frontal assault on Sirte is imminent. Despite its recent losses, ISIS is still rumoured to have sleeper cells in and around Surman, Misrata and Sabratha.
Anti — 6 June 2016
The Government of National Accord’s (GNA) establishment of the Adjabiya-Sirte operations room to coordinate the anti-ISIS campaign from the east, and de-facto reinstatement of Ibrahim Jadhran as head of the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) in the central region, in tandem with the PFG attack on ISIS in Libya’s oil crescent, signals that a deal has been made between the GNA and local actors in the oil crescent that circumvents Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA). While this dynamic effectively puts the GNA in a firm position to negotiate workable, yet temporary, alliances with rival militias to focus on the fight against ISIS, it threatens to expose the GNA to hijacking by groups that are not under its direct control, and who have no other overlapping interests than the defeat of ISIS in Sirte.