Libyan actors
Tracking developments of Libyan Actors in Libya’s security space including armed group activity, state security operations and political activities pertaining to Libya’s security.
Action — 22 August 2016
The Bunyan Marsus coalition continued its steady advance deep into the center of Sirte, taking major residential areas throughout the week with the help of US airstrikes. ISIS militants still fighting in these areas continue to show fierce resistance using snipers, mortars and SVBIEDs, but the gains made by Bunyan Marsus indicate that the entirety of Sirte may be liberated within the next two weeks.
Anti — 22 August 2016
On 22 August, the HoR managed to hold its first session since February 2016 with the required legal quorum. Of the 101 members in attendance, 61 voted no-confidence on the current GNA cabinet, but gave the Presidential Council a final opportunity to submit an amended cabinet for a possible future endorsement vote. This latest development is quite a blow to the internationally recognized GNA, as certain ministers have already assumed their mandates, but may have to now be replaced… In Western Libya, the conflict map is becoming slightly more complicated. The main tension inside the capital is between pro-GNA militias and anti-GNA Islamist/Misratan affiliated factions, signaling a very likely conflict between these militias after the victory in Sirte is secured.
Other — 22 August 2016
Conflict continues in eastern Libya between the Libyan National Army (LNA) and the coalition of jihadists in Benghazi. Reports indicate that General Khalifta Haftar has arrived in Benghazi to personally oversee the final assault in western Benghazi…. In Derna, the LNA operation room responsible for conducting operations against the Derna Mujahedeen Shura Council (DMSC) was reorganized by Haftar this week, indicating a likely uptick in military confrontation in the coming weeks. The move follows two successful attacks conducted by the DMSC on LNA units near Derna last month, in which 12 LNA soldiers were killed.
Western — 22 August 2016
As of 22 August, US Africa Command press statements say that the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit has conducted 77 airstrikes in Sirte under Operation Odyssey Lightning. Meanwhile, the no-confidence vote for the Government of National Accord (GNA) dealt by the Libyan House of Representatives on 22 August creates significant issues for the international community’s attempts to provide support to the GNA. Further, it is not clear what affect this development will have on the West’s assistance package for the campaign against ISIS in Libya , which began on 1 August and was initiated at the request of the GNA.
Action — 15 August 2016
The Misratan-led Bunyan Marsus coalition made great gains against ISIS in Sirte, pushing ISIS out of its stronghold in Ouagadougu Centre, Ibn Sina Hospital and Sirte University on 11 August. All three buildings were bastions of ISIS rule in the city, and the group’s downfall represents a significant degradation of its presence and control. Paradoxically, the GNA’s impending victory over ISIS is also a moment of rapid decline in its legitimacy. This observation was recognized by UN special envoy Martin Kobler in a recent interview, saying that popular support for the GNA is crumbling due to worsening economic and security conditions throughout Libya.
Anti — 15 August 2016
New political wrangling within the GNA is widening rifts even further. On 10 August, the Presidential Council issued a statement threatening to nominate replacement candidates if two of its boycotting members, Ali Al Gatrani and Omar Laswad, did not rejoin within one week. The statement caused uproar among anti-GNA factions across Libya… Meanwhile, the GNA is unlikely to receive a significant boost in legitimacy or popular support until a total victory is achieved by Bunyan Marsus against ISIS in Sirte. However, even if this ISIS is crushed by the coalition, the GNA is not guaranteed to survive.
Other — 15 August 2016
In Tripoli, local pro-GNA militias are recoiling at the perceived rise in Islamist and Misratan power. This tension signals imminent conflict in the capital, and potentially the collapse of the GNA’s political arrangements in western Libya… In Derna, a new agreement was reportedly signed on 13 August by local residents, members of the municipal council and the Derna Mujahedeen Shura Council (DMSC) in an effort to circumvent wider conflict and transition power to neutral actors… Benghazi witnessed a lull in fighting last week as the LNA reorganized its forces and consolidating its control, however clashes with ISIS and Benghazi Revolutionary Shura Council militants continue to take place intermittently in Benghazi’s central districts near the port.
Western — 15 August 2016
The Washington Post reported that US Special Operations forces are providing direct, on-the-ground support for Bunyan Marsus fighters battling the ISIS in Sirte. The US troops were tasked with coordinating American airstrikes and providing intelligence as the coalition ousted ISIS from its stronghold in the city center. A total of 48 US airstrikes have taken place steadily since 1 August, targeting ISIS positions throughout Sirte… Italy appointed a new ambassador to Libya, while members from the Italian Senate called for a European summit on Libya to address the shortfalls of the Libyan Political Agreement and the significant gaps in US, UK and EU policy towards Libya’s various factions.
Action 8 Aug 2016
Two major pronouncements were made this week. 1. Misratan forces continued their protracted advance into Sirte as battles supposedly moved into what Banyan Marsus is calling their ‘final stages’. 2. Simultaneously as the fight against ISIS has become less popular for some militia men in Tripoli, non-ISIS jihadis such as the grand mufti are expressing support for ISIS…. US support is also fuelling divides with Misratan ranks between pro-GNA formations and more anti-GNA hard-line militias. These divides may escalate the closer the BM gets to victory in Sirte. Anti GNA sentiment remains high in Misratan ranks, with many fighters rumoured to be actively ready to move against the GNA in Tripoli after victory in Sirte.