Libyan actors
Tracking developments of Libyan Actors in Libya’s security space including armed group activity, state security operations and political activities pertaining to Libya’s security.
Other — 4 July 2016
A high-level political attempt at rapprochement in Derna culminated in a declared ceasefire last week. Nonetheless, Derna Mujahedeen Shura Council (DMSC) militants assassinated three Libyan National Army (LNA) security officers on 1 July, serving to scuttle previous progress. Meanwhile, an IED that killed two LNA security officers in a busy Benghazi street on 2 July, indicates that militants are likely to resort once more to assassinations and suicide bombings, if they continue to lose ground. The DMSC is also supporting renegade Islamist militias in Ajdabiya and Benghazi, a practice that has escalated tensions and made reconciliation between non-ISIS jihadis and the LNA even less likely.
Western — 4 July 2016
Western countries continue to project support for the Government of National Accord (GNA), with a number of representatives travelling to Tripoli throughout last week to discuss immediate assistance… Haftar travelled to Moscow on 27 June, followed immediately by GNA deputy prime minister Ahmed Metig on 29 June to solicit Russian support… UN Special Representative Martin Kobler met with HoR Chairman Ageelah Saleh, and a delegation of HoR members and eastern tribal leaders, in Muscat on 28 June to explore the potential for political resolution.
Action — 27 June 2016
The GNA’s Misratan-led Bunyan Marsus operations room launched a massive ground assault on 21 June in an attempt to capture the centre of Sirte. However, ISIS snipers and IED’s repeatedly dealt Bunyan Marsus significant losses throughout the week… At this time, Bunyan Marsus commanders estimate only 500-700 ISIS fighters remain in the city, contrary to higher estimates by the CIA and other foreign military sources.
Anti — 27 June 2016
In the coming weeks, Libya’s oil crescent is likely to witness increased tension between three actors: the Libyan National Army (LNA), the Government of National Accord-aligned Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG), and renegade Islamist militias… The reversal of military momentum once more in favour of the LNA, coupled with the Islamist subversion of the GNA’s anti-ISIS, efforts is bolstering the political position of Haftar and anti-GNA factions… After several Islamist militias broke away from the GNA’s Bunyan Marsus coalition and attacked Ajdabiya on 18 June, the GNA’s political position in the oil crescent was severely compromised, and with it the standing of PFG forces loyal to Ibrahim Jadhran… Meanwhile, the GNA is still holed up in Abu Setta naval base, while other militias affiliated to Islamist forces have a freer hand in the Tripoli.
Other — 27 June 2016
The Libyan National Army (LNA) made significant gains in Benghazi last week, after a blitz offensive took the district of Garyounis, including the tourist village at Ganfuda, from remnants of ISIS and the Benghazi Revolutionary Shura Council on 22 June… Conflict between the LNA and the Derna Mujahedeen Shura Council (DMSC) did not escalate last week. An LNA spokesperson stated that a two-week truce was initiated to enable a peaceful resolution between both parties. Meanwhile, the DMSC is supporting renegade Islamist militias planning to attack Ajdabiya and Benghazi that have the potential to re-escalate conflict.
Western — 27 June 2016
The weakness of the Government of National Accord (GNA) was more fully realised in international diplomatic circles last week, when GNA Foreign Minister Taher Siala failed to make a positive impact on the European stage… During a Senate Foreign Relations Committee confirmation hearing on 22 June, President Barack Obama’s nominee to command US forces in Africa, Marine Lt. General Thomas Waldhauser, said that more ground troops were needed in Libya to fight ISIS and agreed the current strategy of not bombing the group there “makes no sense.”
Action — 20 June 2016
This week witnessed the slowing momentum of the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) anti–ISIS operation in Sirte, as fierce ISIS counterattacks stalled the operation’s advance. This development is chiefly attributed to two factors: 1) ISIS is beginning to push back on the Bunyan Marsus advance inside Sirte, successfully and repeatedly hitting GNA forces behind their own front lines, and 2) the ‘defection’ of the hardline Islamist factions (e.g. Benghazi Defense Brigade) and other associated militias.
Anti — 20 June 2016
The political damage to the Government of National Accord (GNA), following the attack on Ajdabiya on 18 June by Islamist militias, may undo fragile militia alliances in Tripoli and key towns in western Libya. Meanwhile, an escalation of open conflict between the Libyan National Army (LNA) and Islamist militias from western Libya is now very likely, and could potentially spill over into a broader tribal/regional conflict involving the LNA and the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG).
Other — 20 June 2016
Two key types of non-state actors may now be identified vis-a-vis theLibyan National Army (LNA): The first group is comprised of Islamist actors in the cities of Benghazi, Derna and Ajdabiya, (including ISIS, Ansar Al Sharia, Derna Mujahedeen Shura Council, Benghazi Revolutionary Shura Council, Benghazi Defense Brigade and the Ajdabiya Liberation Operation Room. The second group consists of militias that were once aligned with Khalifa Haftar, who have opted to support the Government of National Accord instead. Conflict is likely to continue unabated in Benghazi between the LNA and these groups, and may escalate further in Derna and Ajdabiya in the short term.