On 13 February, Chatham House published a report entitled ‘How migrant smuggling has fuelled conflict in Libya’, a systems analysis of key transit hubs namely Kufra, Sebha and Zawiyya. It highlights that since 2020 there has been an uptick in migrant departures to Europe, as compared to 2017-2019, and the de facto regulation of migrant smuggling and people trafficking by local actors. The report argues that because they are framed as rule of law interventions, European attempts to curb migrant smuggling and trafficking have addressed symptoms rather than causes. Migratory flows have fluctuated – but are significantly reduced from their 2016 highs – due to a series of transactional bargains that entrench conflict. However, this has made the issue harder to resolve, as Libyan actors seek to leverage flows of migrants, which are once again on the rise, for financial and political support.
The report recommends that a more effective strategy to tackle this issue would be to develop a ‘whole-of-route’ approach that contains a wider suite of policy tools than simply enforcement, most notably sustainable local development initiatives and peacebuilding efforts. These have the potential to reduce demand and the perceived need for migrants to move and tackle the enabling environment in which criminal groups and conflict actors operate.